MM2 Summer Box '26 Odds & Values — Your Real Icecream Chances
August 2, 2026
Every MM2 box guide lists the odds. What they can't show you is what the pulls are actually worth — and this event, the values are the whole story. Here's the Summer Box '26 loot table crossed with live trading data, and the two price charts that should change how you spend your Shells.
The Loot Table, With Values
Box cost: 120 Shells (one free box per day from maxed quests) or 60 Gems.
| Tier | Chance | Items |
|---|---|---|
| Common | 70% | Tourist, Sand, Duckies, Cherries |
| Uncommon | 18% | Neopolitan, Turtles, Floral |
| Rare | 8% | Pier, Sunset |
| Legendary | 4% | Bubbles |
| Godly | 0.2% | Icecream (~155) |
| Chroma | <0.1% | Chroma Icecream (~2,000) |
Values as of August 2, 2026. Sub-godly box items are too new to have settled trading values — their pages update daily as the market forms.
Advertisement
Your Real Chances at the Godly
At 0.2% per box, the math is sobering:
- 20 boxes (the full reward track): about a 3.9% chance of at least one Icecream
- One free box every remaining day of the event: still under 5%
- Chroma Icecream, below 0.1%: under 2% across 20 boxes
Seven in ten boxes pay out a Common. That's not a reason to skip boxes — it's a reason to open the free ones and value the guaranteed reward track (Bubble Blower at 1 box, Bubbly at 6, RC Car at 12, Nightlife at 20) as the real return on your Shells. Full quest math in the Shells guide.
The Icecream Crash — What Launch Hype Does to a Value
This is the chart competitors can't print. Icecream entered the market around 700 at event launch, then as thousands of boxes opened and supply flooded in, it fell to 400, then 175, and has now settled around 155 — a 78% drop in under two weeks, tracked update-by-update in the value history on its item page.
The lesson for traders: never pay launch prices for an unboxable item while its box is still on sale. Supply only grows until the event ends.
Meanwhile, the Chroma Is Climbing
The mirror story: Chroma Icecream, with its sub-0.1% pull rate, has been moving the other way — most recently up from 1,850 to around 2,000. Extreme scarcity means supply barely grows even at a million players opening boxes. One item, two directions: that's box economics in a single event.
What Happens After August 23
When the event ends, the box leaves and the supply of every item in it freezes forever. That's historically the moment limited items begin their collectible arc. If you're holding pulls, watch their value pages; if you're trading for them, run it through the value calculator and mind the final-week speculation. For the full event picture, start at the Summer Event 2026 guide.
Advertisement